Stan Son takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s game between the Rays and Reds.
This is the second game of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Ryan Pepiot is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay while Andrew Abbott is slated to start for Cincinnati.
Rays at Reds prediction, preview
Ryan Pepiot throws hard, averaging 95 mph on the fastball. The swinging strike rate is a healthy 11.8%, while the strikeout rate is 24.2%. Early in his career, lack of control and allowing home runs were an issue. The HR/9 went from the 1.5 area down to 1.18 last season, but it’s back up to 1.57 through 120.1 innings this season. The barrel rate is 10.1%, while the hard hit rate is 42.9%. Couple those with a 42% fly-ball rate and bad things happen. The 4.47 FIP is much higher than the 3.59 ERA.
Pepiot has reverse splits. The K-BB% is 8.7% lower against righties while they’ve hit 13 of the 21 home runs. 17 of the 21 home runs have been served up at home.
Pepiot has allowed more than three earned runs three times. Two of those have come in the last five starts. He’s gone at least six innings 15 times, including the four most recent starts. This will be the first time facing Cincinnati this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds have struck out at the seventh-highest rate while having the 15th-best ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best in MLB.
Andrew Abbott is a lefty that averages 92.5 mph on the fastball and is sporting a 2.13 ERA. Before we go crowning him for the Cy Young, the strand rate is 84.9% and the FIP is much higher at 3.42. The swinging strike rate of 10.9% and 29.6% chase rate are pretty good. In addition, Abbott has done a good job of limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity is 88 mph, the barrel rate is 7.5% and the hard hit rate is only 32.9%, fourth-best in MLB. The fly-ball rate is 48.2%, though, while the HR/FB rate of 7.6% is a career-low and well below the career rate of 10.5%.
Abbott has been split neutral while he’s been less effective at home, which isn’t a surprise since Great American Ball Park is far from a friendly confine for pitchers.
Abbott has allowed more than three earned runs three times. He’s allowed one or fewer earned run 13 times and gone at least six innings eight times, including a complete-game shutout in Cleveland. This will be the first time facing Tampa Bay this season.
The Rays have struck out at the 15th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being 22nd in ISO. The wOBA is 20th-best.
As for bullpens, Tampa Bay has the 14th-lowest FIP while Cincinnati has the 26th-lowest.
Rays at Reds pick, best bet
Great American Ball Park is often called Great American Small Park for a reason, as it’s the second-best venue for home runs according to Baseball Savant. Pepiot has hard contact and long ball issues, while Abbott has been a little fortunate. He has given up some bombs at home, though. I like the offenses in this one.
