The 2023 U.S. Open winner, Coco Gauff, disappointed in her title defense in 2024, only making it to Round 4. Now, she’ll look to rebound in Queens and go on a deep run in the final Grand Slam of 2024.
She already has a Grand Slam win this season, winning the French Open, but followed that up by getting upset in the first round at Wimbledon. Which version of Gauff will show up this week?
She’ll face Ajla Tomljanović of Australia in the opening round.
Moneyline
Total Games
Ajla Tomljanović’s best finish at the U.S. Open is a quarterfinals appearance in 2022, but her game has fallen off over the past number of years. She enters this week ranked No. 1,211 in the world, putting her in a tough spot against Gauff, the No. 3 seed. She has made it to the second round at the U.S. Open each of the past two years, and it is worth noting that the U.S. Open has been her best career grand slam, with a win percentage of 55%.
The U.S. Open was the spot of Gauff’s first Grand Slam title, winning here in 2023. With that being said, she hasn’t had a ton of success here in other years, making it to the quarterfinals on just one other occasion in 2022. She’ll look to find her 2023 form when she hits the court on Tuesday and beyond.
Gauff is a massive favorite in this one at -3000 odds, which is an implied probability of 96.77%. These two have faced each other just once in their career, with Gauff defeating the Australian in straight sets, 6-3, 6-0, at the Paris Olympic Games.
Gauff should have no problem getting a win here, but you likely don’t want to lay the -3000 price tag, so we should look for a different way to bet this match. Instead, I’m going to bet on Tomljanovic to cover the +6.5 game spread at +114.
She has had some impressive outings of late, even in some losses. She took No. 16 Clara Tauson to three sets at the Cincinnati Open, and she pushed No. 2 Ekaterina Alexandrova at last weekend’s Abierto GNP Seguros.
This match will be closer than most people think.
Pick: Ajla Tomljanovic +6.5 (+114) via FanDuel
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