We love chaos. So here’s to the final weekend of this baseball season, which could be cooking up an all-time feast of chaos stew. By which we mean …
Keep your tiebreaker charts handy!
Oh, what’s that you say? You don’t know where to find one of those tiebreaker charts? You’ve come to the right place. We’ve figured out every darned one of the tiebreakers that could still be in play (hopefully). So here they come.
The short version
Remember this, if you get confused:
IN THE NL: The Reds win every tiebreaker.
IN THE AL: The Astros lose every tiebreaker.
But that doesn’t mean this still isn’t complicated, so let’s run through it all.
The AL Central
The Guardians and Tigers could still end up with the same record. All variations of that tiebreaker scenario would mean: Guardians finish in first place. (They won the season series.) The Tigers then would get thrown into the wild-card jumble.
The AL East
The Blue Jays and Yankees also head into the weekend with the same record. If they finish tied, the Blue Jays win the division and the Yankees are the No. 1 wild card. (Same reason: Toronto won the season series.)
Got that? Now here comes the fun stuff.
AL wild-card chaos
Can Jose Altuve’s Astros claim one of the final playoff spots? (Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
The Red Sox went into the weekend with 72 losses. The Guardians and Tigers had 73 losses. The Astros had 74 losses. That’s four teams for three spots. Let’s break down how that would work:
Red Sox-Astros tie (for the last two AL wild-card spots): Red Sox get No. 2 wild card, Astros get No. 3 wild card. (Red Sox won the season series.)
Tigers-Astros tie (for the last wild-card spot): Tigers get the No. 3 wild card. Astros go home. (Tigers won the season series.)
Guardians-Astros tie (for the last wild-card spot): Guardians get the No. 3 wild card. Astros go home. (Guardians won the season series.)
Red Sox-Tigers tie (for the last two wild-card spots): Depends on this weekend, but if the Tigers win at least one game at Fenway Park, they would hold that tiebreaker. So Detroit would be the No. 2 wild card, and Boston would have the third wild card. (Tigers have won all three games head-to-head so far.)
Red Sox-Guardians tie (for the last two wild-card spots): The Red Sox win that tiebreaker, so they’d be the second wild card, and Cleveland would be the No. 3 wild card.
Three-way ties involving combinations of those teams
There’s no better chaos than three-way tie-breaker chaos! But we can sort this out, too.
Guardians-Tigers-Astros tie (with the AL Central and last wild card on the line): Let’s say the Astros sweep the Angels, and the Guardians and Tigers each win two of three. Then they would all finish at 88-74. Here’s what happens:
The AL Central gets decided first — and the Guardians win that tie-breaker. Then we’d have an Astros-Tigers tie for the final wild card — and remember our short-version tip above: The Astros lose that (and all) tie-breakers.
Red Sox-Guardians-Tigers tie (with the AL Central and last two wild cards on the line): Once again, the AL Central tie is broken first. Cleveland wins that one. That would turn this weekend’s Tigers-Red Sox series into essentially a seeding playoff. The Tigers would need to win two of three to finish tied with Boston — which would give them the No. 2 wild card, while the Red Sox would drop to the No. 3 wild card.
Red Sox-Guardians-Astros tie (for the final two wild-card spots): Once again, that knocks the Astros out of the postseason, because they lost the season series to both teams. Boston won the season series from both teams, so the Red Sox would be the No. 2 wild card and Cleveland would be the third wild card.
Red Sox-Tigers-Astros tie (for the final two wild-card spots): This will sound familiar, but this scenario sends the Astros home. And if the Tigers win two of three in Boston, they’ll be the second wild card, and the Red Sox would be the third wild card.
Four-way ties involving those teams
Is anyone out there rooting for a four-way tie? Sure. Why the heck not? So here’s how that would work.
Guardians-Tigers-Red Sox-Astros tie (for the AL Central and final two wild cards): Take a deep breath now. The first step is to decide the Central. You know how that goes. The Guardians win that tiebreaker so they’d be the Central champs.
That leaves us with a Red Sox-Tigers-Astros three-way tie to break, and we just explained that one. Astros: Sayonara. Tigers (if they win two in Boston): No. 2 wild card. Red Sox: No. 3 wild card. Phew!
NL wild-card chaos
The Mets entered Friday with the No. 6 seed. Can they keep it? (David Banks / Imagn Images)
The Mets went into this weekend with 77 losses. The Reds had 78. The Diamondbacks had 79. What happens if any combination of those teams gives us a tie for the last wild-card spot? Read on.
METS-REDS TIE: That would send the Mets to the first tee. The Reds win that (and every) tiebreaker. (Won on the season series.)
METS-DIAMONDBACKS TIE: This is complicated, but it can’t turn out advantage-Mets. Here’s why:
These two teams split their season series, so this one moves on to the second tiebreaker. That’s determined by their record within their own divisions. And the only way the Diamondbacks can tie the Mets is to win their series in San Diego, which would guarantee the D-Backs the better divisional record. So again, the Mets are bounced, and Arizona advances.
REDS-DIAMONDBACKS TIE: This one seems unlikely. It can only happen if the Diamondbacks sweep, the Mets get swept in Miami and the Reds win two of three in Milwaukee. But if that happens, the Reds advance. (Repeat after us: Won the season series.)
Three-way ties involving those teams
METS-REDS-DIAMONDBACKS TIE: Yes, it’s still possible. Here’s the most likely way it would happen: Mets win one in Miami, Reds win two in Milwaukee, Diamondbacks win all three in San Diego. But it could also happen if the Mets get swept. So what tiebreaker rules would apply?
It’s three teams tying for one spot. So that spot goes to the team with the best head-to-head record against the other two — namely, the Reds:
Reds — 8-4
Mets — 5-7
Diamondbacks — 5-7
Ties for the first or fourth seed
It’s no longer possible to have any ties for first place in any divisions in the National League. But seeding is still on the line, which determines who plays whom. So what if we have a …
PHILLIES-BREWERS TIE (for the No. 1 seed in the NL): The Brewers win that tiebreaker. (Yep, won the season series.)
CUBS-PADRES TIE (for the No. 4 seed): This one matters, since the top wild card gets to host a first-round series. It’s also tricky, since these teams split their season series. That takes us to records within their division, which look like this:
Cubs — 27-22
Padres — 29-20
Both teams have three divisional games this weekend. But for the Padres to catch the Cubs, they have to win their series against Arizona. And if the Padres win that series, they would clinch a better division record — meaning they would win this tie-breaker.
Then again, if the Cubs win two of three against St. Louis this weekend, never mind! That clinches the top wild-card spot no matter what San Diego does.
Sorry. No four-team ties are possible in the National League. But chaos? That could totally happen — in all sorts of ways. So enjoy the wackiness — and keep this chart nearby!
(Top photo of Tanner Bibee: David Richard / Imagn Images)
