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Photo Credit: Spencer Baldwin
Sandy, UT – The decisive leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup doesn’t just have the Cup on the line, but huge playoff implications are all over this match. Colorado (8th place, 11-7-14, 40 points) is just over the playoff line, but has a few teams at their heels. RSL (11th place, 11-4-16, 37 points) is one of those teams, with a game in hand; a win for RSL will help them jump above Colorado by the end of the season. Chris Armas said that this game is a cup final. It has never been truer for the Rocky Mountain Cup than this year. If the Rapids fail to retain the RMC and don’t make the playoffs, the season will be a failure. With the 1-0 win in Colorado earlier this season, the Rapids have the advantage. RSL will have to win by two or more goals. It doesn’t get more important than this. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
When: Saturday, October 4th @ 7:30 p.m. MST
Where: America First Field
TV/Streaming: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Unbeaten (but no sweep) Against Minnesota
It is always disappointing to drop points at home, but it felt a little bit worse when Minnesota came to town last weekend. Colorado opted to stick with their 4-2-3-1 formation after the five-back look got the win in Minnesota. With only two healthy or available center-backs, they could have had their hand forced. It started well for the Rapids, who broke the deadlock right before halftime with a sublime Rafa Santos free kick. The Brazilian’s first goal in Colorado was cancelled out by a Nectarios Triantis wonder goal, as the Australian found the back of the net from way out. It was a poor way to concede, and ultimately resulted in dropping points despite a relatively good performance.
Defensively, it was one of the better performances, especially from this more recent personnel group on the backline. It could have been helped if Minnesota had a healthy striker, rather than being forced to start Bongokuhle Hlongwane up top, usually their wingback. No matter who started up top, Chris Armas was happy with how the Rapids were able to shut down Minnesota’s game. Colorado was good on set pieces and defending the counterattack, both staples in the Minnesota game plan. The Rapids were truly one wonder strike away from sweeping one of the best Western Conference teams this season. That season sweep on a team continues to elude the Colorado Rapids.
It was another set-piece goal for the Rapids, making it three set-piece goals in three games. It also means that the Rapids have only scored once from open play in those three games. Being good at set-pieces is not a bad thing, and this team could use some 2021 Rapids set-piece magic. The one goal from open play is concerning, however. A new attack led by Paxten Aaronson has yet to find its foothold. If the Rapids can establish themselves as a good set-piece team and be a threat in open play, they could become a truly dangerous team. However, it has been one or the other for most of the year.
Lineup Prediction:
Steffen / Cannon, Maxsø (c), Holding, Santos / Larraz, Ronan / C. Bassett, Aaronson, C. Harris / Navarro
There are no new names on the availability report for Colorado. Kimani Stewart-Baynes is still out for the rest of the season with that ankle injury. Noah Cobb and Adam Beaudry are still on international duty with the U-20 USYNT. Ian Murphy is back after his knock kept him out of the Minnesota game.
The biggest question mark going into this game will be who starts out wide for Colorado? Chris Armas has opted for a pairing of Cole Bassett and Calvin Harris. While Harris scored the only goal in Dallas, he hasn’t been too good out wide recently, and Cole Bassett has made it clear that he does not want to play out wide. Alexis Manyoma is the clear option, but he has yet to see any real minutes with the club, with Armas saying that he needs more time to adjust to the system. Ted Ku-DiPietro was effective in his early appearances with the team, but has not started since the Leagues Cup and has not performed well in his few appearances off the bench since then. We have seen Darren Yapi out wide before, but it would be surprising to see that again in Sandy.
The most recent USMNT roster does not include any Rapids players, which may be beneficial for the club, but for the players, it must be disappointing. Especially for star goalkeeper Zack Steffen, who seemed to be a lock for the most recent roster. Mauricio Pochettino has gone with four other goalkeepers instead. Hopefully, this can light a fire under Steffen and lead him to a monster game against RSL and for the rest of the season. Only Adam Beaudry and Noah Cobb will be unavailable due to international duty.
No Goal Contributions Yet. Time to Worry About Paxten?
Paxten has now had five appearances with the Colorado Rapids, and the record incoming transfer has yet to truly make his mark for Colorado. Other than forcing an own-goal against Houston to win late, he has yet to get a goal contribution for Colorado this season. The significant investment the club made in him comes with lofty expectations. Are the expectations too unrealistic, or is it time to worry about the new number ten in Colorado?
The short answer is absolutely not. The lack of goal contributions is just about the only thing that can be somewhat concerning about Paxten’s performance in a Rapids jersey. The underlying stats, combined with the eye test, show how well Paxten has performed for the Rapids in his brief start. Aaronson is in the 90th percentile when it comes to shots, shots on target, and expected goals per 90 minutes. He is also excelling in almost every dribbling stat, which makes sense if you watch him play. He is incredibly shifty on the ball and glides through opponents with ease. The goals and assists will come with how well Paxten has been playing.
Long-term, it is hard not to get excited about the prospect of Paxten Aaronson. A preseason and more time under Chris Armas’ system will do nothing but a world of good for the youngster. He has been thrust into the starting eleven in the later stages of the season and has been tasked with bringing the Rapids to the playoffs. Some adjusting time is necessary, and Paxten possibly got the least amount of time to adjust. The new star in Colorado will be just fine, and it will be a perfect time for him to make his mark against a rival in the Rocky Mountain Cup.
RSL’s Late Playoff Bid
It has been a disappointing year for RSL, who, despite a recent uptick in investment, has spent most of this season below the playoff line. But with three games left, RSL still has some control over their destiny. It has to start with all three points against the Rapids, however. A Rapids win will take away RSL’s control, forcing them to pay attention elsewhere for their playoff lives. It will also confirm that Colorado will finish above their rivals from Utah. It is a real six-pointer with the Rocky Mountain Cup also on the line.
The Rapids got the win in the reverse fixture earlier this year. A Djordje Mihailoivić goal was all the Rapids needed to get all three points in Commerce City. It was a defensive affair, with neither team managing to exceed one expected goal on the night. Colorado was without Rafa Navarro on the night due to injury. This result gives the Rapids the advantage going into the second and final leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup. Colorado remains the holder of the Cup, which also gives the Rapids the advantage in terms of tiebreakers. RSL will have to win by two or more to win the Cup.
It will be a different-looking attack for RSL this time around, as they went big on the striker position during the summer transfer window. They spent a combined $7 million on the striker partnership of Rwan Cruz and Victor Olatunji. The duo has been the usual target, with RSL head coach Pablo Mastroeni opting for a two-striker system. RSL will still have Diego Luna, who hasn’t made that jump to Europe quite yet. RSL has adopted a 4-4-2 formation recently, and I would expect them to revert to it once again against Colorado. It will be interesting to see how Chris Armas lines up his team against a familiar formation.
Prediction: Colorado is unable to get all three points, but still retains the Rocky Mountain Cup. RSL takes it 2-1.
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