How a government shutdown impacts the National Weather Service
As many federal agencies shutter amid the shutdown, NOAA can’t close its doors, but it does have to halt some services.
- Historically, temperatures in the 50s arrive in Fort Myers around Oct. 28.
- The average date for temperatures to drop into the 40s in the region is Nov. 23.
- Early cold fronts are often short-lived, with a more significant cool down typically occurring in November.
The season’s second cold front pushed through Southwest Florida this past weekend, dropping temperatures below 70 degrees for the first time since April 23.
But when can we expect the even colder weather to hit us?
“It was 68 on Sunday and 67 Monday morning,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Paul Close, who works in the Ruskin office.
That’s several degrees below the average low for this region for an Oct. 11 and Oct. 12, but conditions were still warm as highs were in the upper mid-80s.
We want relief. Temperatures have been above 70 since just after Easter.
“It’s been warm for so long people just want to hear ‘it’s going to be below 70,'” Close said.
It was below 70 in Fort Myers, for at least a few hours each day.
Naples Airport recorded a low of 68 on Oct. 13.
When will we see temperatures drop into the 50s for a low?
That should come on Oct. 28, which is the average date on which Fort Myers has posted 59 degrees or lower since 1902, according to NWS records.
“Last year it wasn’t until November 16, but it had probably gotten close a few times but didn’t quite make it,” Close said.
When will Southwest Florida feel temps in the 50s?
So, lows in the 50s typically come before Halloween.
Let’s go 5 degrees colder? It may not sound like much but lows of 54 or less are downright chilly for many Southwest Florida residents, and visitors even.
Oct. 10 is the earliest Fort Myers has seen lows below 55 degrees, with the average date of temperatures in the low 50s starting on Nov. 8, according to NWS records.
The next logical questions is: When will Southwest Florida see temperatures in the brisk 40s?
Nov. 23 is the average day on which Fort Myers has posted temperatures in the 40s, according to more than a century of data.
“Last year it was November 24, so that was pretty close,” Close said.
“(In Southwest Florida) the temperatures are anything but fall-like,” an NWS report from September says. “Usually high humidity with dew points in the middle 60s to middle 70s, along with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s persist well into October.”
These first few cold fronts will likely be short-lived
“The first shot of cooler drier air is usually rather short lived ― lasting only a day or two,” the site says. “The real cool down doesn’t usually occur until November.”
On December 10, 1917, temperatures in Fort Myers actually hit freezing, and that was the earliest freezing temperatures have been recorded here.
Weather records in Fort Myers go back to the late 1800s, but NWS considers 1902 to be the year in which the agency started keeping accurate, comparable measurements.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, is giving above-average chances for both above-average temperatures and rains between now and the end of the year.
La Nina conditions are expected to make the winter slightly warmer and drier than average, which is not good for a region that’s already partially under abnormally dry conditions.
The rainy season starts, on average, on May 15 and runs through Oct. 15.
That period this year has produced a mere 30.5 inches of rain, compared to last year’s record summer of 63.6 inches.
The driest rainy season came in 1944 and produced 20.2 inches, Close said.
NWS records say in Jan. 11 of 2010 was the last time freezing conditions were recorded at Page Field in Fort Myers.
