The Diamondbacks dealt six veterans for a haul of nine players — eight of them pitchers — at the trade deadline in July. Their return was met with mixed reviews, particularly from fans who were critical of the lack of Top 100 prospects coming back.
But scouts, executives and analysts around baseball mostly tell a different story.
They see the Diamondbacks having done well considering what they had to move, and they believe the collection of prospects the club acquired was a good blend of certainty, upside and proximity to the majors.
“I thought Arizona did really good, honestly,” said a rival scout. “I think they reloaded a lot of pitching. Anytime you can take a major league free-agent at the end of the season and turn him into multiple players, you’ve done all right.”
The scout hit on a point that came up repeatedly from those around the game: The Diamondbacks were selling rental players — i.e., impending free agents — and teams have become increasingly wary of moving high-end prospects for players they have under contract for only another couple of months.
Another factor, they say, was that the Diamondbacks’ players were all flawed — or seen as limited — in various ways. First baseman Josh Naylor and third baseman Eugenio Suarez are both average to below-average defenders known for being streaky. Right-hander Merrill Kelly has performed for years, but he doesn’t have power stuff and doesn’t miss bats — which is to say, he doesn’t possess qualities teams tend to want in the postseason.
The circumstances might have been different had right-hander Zac Gallen been throwing up to his potential, but it’s also fair to wonder if the Diamondbacks would have been selling in the first place had Gallen been pitching as expected.
Another consideration is that rental bats seem to bring back less than rental starting pitchers — and the Diamondbacks moved three of the former compared to one of the latter.
“I thought they kind of addressed a weak spot in their farm system — they went and got some arms,” another rival evaluator said. “Considering the fact that the strength in their system is younger position players, I thought it was a good deadline. It made sense to me. I liked the strategy.”
In left-handers Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt (acquired in the Kelly deal), the Diamondbacks landed a pair of starters who evaluators say should serve as rotation depth. Drake could be up before the end of the year, Bratt maybe early to the middle of next season.
In right-handers Andrew Hoffmann (Grichuk) and Juan Burgos (Suarez) and lefty Brandyn Garcia (Naylor), the Diamondbacks picked up big-league-ready relief help. They added another in right-hander Hunter Cranton (Suarez), who some feel could be a late-inning option as soon as the back half of next year.
One scout called it an “impressive haul of major league ready — or close to the majors — pitching.”
“I think that they have essentially rebuilt next year’s bullpen,” FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen said during a radio interview on the Diamondbacks’ pregame show. “You’re going to see a bunch of the pitchers who they acquired this week in the big leagues next year, and the bullpen overall is just going to be much, much better than it has been in recent years — if all of these guys stay healthy.”
The club also landed upside in pitchers Ashton Izzi (Naylor) and David Hagaman (Kelly), a pair of lower-level arms with the potential to be mid-rotation starters, according to evaluators. Cranton also fits in the “upside” bucket.
“From a depth and proximity standpoint, I thought they did well (at the deadline),” Longenhagen said. “And then the upside part of it is definitely a third of that group, but I thought it was sprinkled in enough that this was a very complete, well-rounded transaction period for the Diamondbacks.”
Where scouts are the least convinced is in the acquisition of first baseman Tyler Locklear (Suarez), a slugger who has put up strong numbers at nearly every stop in his minor league career. They believe he can be exploited by quality pitching, pointing to issues with high fastballs.
While some scouts saw the mechanical changes Locklear made in June as making him more viable as a prospect, others still aren’t buying him.
“There’s a lot of swing and miss,” a scout said. “It’s just a very linear swing, kind of an all-or-nothing type of guy.”
The scout stopped for a moment as he considered a comparison — and laughed when he thought of one.
“You know, the last guy I said that about was Christian Walker,” he said. “Locklear is a good makeup guy — he competes his butt off, he works hard — so maybe there’s a chance he improves.”
Sources say even the Diamondbacks aren’t fully convinced in Locklear’s bat but saw enough upside to make the gamble worth it in their eyes, especially considering the positional need they have at first base going forward.
