STARKVILLE — The last time Mississippi State football played a team from the MAC, it did not go well.
The Bulldogs were blown out at home by Toledo last season 41-17.
MSU (3-0) aims to avoid a similar result this week when it hosts Northern Illinois (1-1) at Davis Wade Stadium on Sept. 20 (3:15 p.m. CT, SEC Network). A win would give the Bulldogs their first 4-0 start to a season since 2014.
Here’s our score prediction for the game.
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Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois prediction
Mississippi State won’t be as dominant against Northern Illinois as it was last week when it crushed Alcorn State 63-0, but this will be another double-digit win.
Exepct another fast start for the Bulldogs. They’ve scored touchdowns on all three of their opening possessions this season and are outscoring opponents 48-3 in the first quarter and 72-13 in the first half. The MSU defense won’t pitch another shutout, though.
Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois scouting report
Why Mississippi State has an advantage: The Bulldogs have an edge because of their passing attack. Quarterback Blake Shapen has built a strong connection with receivers Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III. Thompson is fourth in the SEC with 278 receiving yards.
Mississippi State’s cornerbacks are also playing at a high level. According to Pro Football Focus, starting cornerback Kelley Jones has the third-best coverage grade (81.1) in the SEC and has allowed just two receptions on 12 targets. Northern Illinois is averaging just 100.0 passing yards per game.
Why Northern Illinois has an advantage: The Huskies have a propensity for beating power conference teams. Last season, they beat Notre Dame on the road. In 2023, they beat Boston College on the road. In 2021, they won at Georgia Tech. At one point in their game at Maryland in Week 2, they trailed by only four points, but lost 20-9.
Northern Illinois has allowed an average of just 74 rushing yards against Holy Cross and Maryland.
Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois injury updates
There is no official injury report because it’s a nonconference game. Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby didn’t have a clear availability update for starting right tackle Albert Reese IV and reserve safety Stonka Burnside on Sept. 15, who didn’t play against Alcorn State.
Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois score prediction
Mississippi State 38, Northern Illinois 17
Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for The Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.
